Free pick

Wk 1 TNF: SF vs. LAR

The verdict
Niners' questionable pass rush + weak secondary + return of Fred Warner means Rams will likely pass more. PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 pass yds — Bet size: 1 unit
Samuel Lee
· 3 min read

NFC West rivals clash in Melbourne, Australia

GAME LINES

  • Spread: LAR −3.5 / SF +3.5
  • Total: 48.5
  • Moneyline: LAR −200 / NE +166

THE VERDICT

  • PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 pass yds — Bet size: 1 unit
  • PASS: Spread
  • PASS: Total
  • PASS: Moneyline

Watch our full analysis video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJO8jdRhMgA

CONTEXT/STORY

The first Thursday Night Football game of the season is a doozie between two of the best squads in the NFL, with star-studded rosters and esteemed head coaches who come from the same coaching tree and know each other very, very well.

SF overachieved last season, finishing 12-5 with a playoff win despite not having Bosa and Warner for most of the season. They made some moves to improve their WR room and pass rush, but will need to stay healthy and have strong comeback seasons from their key stars in order to compete for a division title.

LA was probably a muffed punt away from the Super Bowl, losing to Seattle in the NFC Championship in a close one. The big story, of course, is what they have done since then - trading for two-time DPoY Myles Garrett, acquiring top-tier corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from KC, and somehow convincing 3-time DPoY Aaron Donald to come out of retirement for one more run. They are truly all-in and anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl would be a bust.

KEY MATCHUPS

KM #1 - SF pass rush vs. LAR protection

  • SF last in sacks (20) a year ago – no 49er registered even 5 sacks for season (Myles Garrett had 23 by himself)
  • Addition of DT Odighizuwa from DAL and 3rd rd EDGE from Texas Tech should help improve​
  • LAR returns 4 starters from line that tied for fewest sacks allowed (23) a year ago​ - LT Alaric Jackson is expected to play in week 1, despite off-field issues​
  • Divergence: market thinks Bosa + Warner return means Niners D back to elite, but can they rush from anywhere else? ​
  • Advantage: LAR​

KM #2 - LAR pass rush vs. SF protection

  • Myles Garrett vs. Trent Williams evenly matched​
  • Can SF RT Colton McKivitz hold off Byron Young (12 sacks)?​
  • LAR's interior advantage: Kobie Turner/Braden Fiske (10 sacks) + Aaron Donald (if available)
  • Niners starting 4th rd rookie at LG​, slightly above average RG, average Center
  • Divergence: market focused on Garrett-Williams matchup, but interior will be the key matchup​ - LAR collapsing the pocket would take away Niners' X-factor (Purdy's legs)
  • Advantage: LAR / Under​

KM #3 - LAR receivers vs. SF secondary

  • Nacua + Adams = top 3 duo in NFL​; Nacua led NFL in Rec (129) and Yds per game (107.2), Adams led in rec TD (14)
  • LA has 5 TEs that could see significant snaps in '13-personnel' sets​
  • SF's pass defense bottom quartile last year – acquired a few depth pieces via FA and draft, but will it be enough?​
  • Divergence: market pricing as significant mismatch, but intense rivalry will keep a lid on yards and scores​
  • Advantage: LAR​

KM #4 - Special Teams

  • SF kicker Piñeiro led NFL in FG percentage (96.6%, 50+ 85.7%); LA kicker Mevis solid as well​ (92.3% regular/100% playoffs)
  • Niners have edge in return game (Skyy Moore); can LA returner Smith bounce back from muffed punt in NFC Championship?​
  • Divergence: special teams underpiced by market, especially in close games​
  • Advantage: SF​

KM #5 - Coaching/Play-calling

  • Offense: Shanahan vs. McVay 3-3 H2H record last three years – both top offensive minds, know each other well – no edge​
  • Defense: Rams have continuity with Shula, but Niners have new DC Morris installing new system​ - week 1 will be the most challenged
  • Divergence: no divergence from consensus view​
  • (Slight) advantage: LAR​

INJURIES/ABSENCE

San Francisco 49ers

  • No significant injuries - George Kittle, Mike Evans, and Nick Bosa all expected to play​

Los Angeles Rams

  • OUT: rookie 3rd rd OL Keagen Trost – weakens line depth --> could become​ issue if starting LT Alaric Jackson gets injured or is suspended
  • Questionable: EDGE Myles Garrett – appears precautionary​

PROJECTIONS

We expect another exciting, tough, back-and-forth rivalry game that will likely be decided by a FG or two (similar to week 5 LY). SF's pass rush and run defense improved, so Rams may have difficulty running, but should be able to pass effectively vs. ​questionable secondary. LAR's pass rush and secondary both significantly upgraded, so Niners may not be able to pass as effectively as last year​.

  • SF projection: 2 TDs, 2-3 FGs = 20-23 pts. Midpoint 21.5​
  • LAR projection: 3 TD, 1-2 FGs = 24-27 pts. Midpoint 25.5​
  • Score differential: LAR by ~4, Total ~47​

THE VERDICT

  • Spread: LAR –3.5 --> PASS​
    • Too close to call, could go either way​
  • Total: 48.5 --> PASS​
    • Similar to week 5 game – back-and-forth down to the wire​
  • Moneyline: LAR –200/SF +166 --> PASS​
    • Same as spread ​
  • Player prop: Matthew Stafford Over 265.5 passing yds (Underdog) Bet: 1 unit.​
    • Questionable SF pass rush + weak secondary + LA difficulty running w/ Warner return​