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Why I Bet Fewer NFL Games Than You

The verdict
The NFL betting market is the most efficient betting market in the world - i.e. the closing lines are usually right or close to right.  And even the best predictive models in the world rarely beat ~55% ATS over large samples. 
Samuel Lee
· 2 min read

Watch the full video (13:45) instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWg57_TMkdI

The NFL betting market is the most efficient betting market in the world - i.e. the closing lines are usually right or close to right. 

And even the best predictive models in the world rarely beat ~55% ATS over large samples. 

What does this mean? It means don’t bet the rent money on any single game! 

Remember, sports betting is entertainment, and there’s no such thing as a ‘lock’ or a guaranteed win, so you should bet accordingly, and be wary of anyone that tells you otherwise. 

So why do we even bother if markets are efficient? How do we find an edge?

Well, the key is in the word “usually”. Meaning, there are times when the sportsbook lines are wrong! So we need to find those opportunities and capitalize on them (and have the discipline to not bet when the lines are right).

How do we do that? There are 3 pillars to our edge: 

  1. Insights from in-depth analysis 
    1. What’s the context or story behind each team coming in? Are they division or conference rivals, what happened the last time they played each other? How have they been playing recently? What are their motivations?
    2. Then we analyze the game itself - offense, defense, special teams; key matchups, and of course, whether or not injuries and weather will be a factor.
  2. Selectivity 
    1. Most games are efficiently priced, so I’m highly selective about the bets that I place each week. I’ll only bet it if I believe, based on my analysis, that the line is mispriced by 3 points or more. That gives me enough cushion so that, even if I’m wrong by a point or two, I can still win the bet. 
    2. Does that limit the number of games I can bet? Absolutely. And that’s a good thing. Betting on a lot of games with no cushion is the fastest way to lose all your money. 
  3. Bet sizing and bankroll management. This is the part that most sports bettors miss. You do all the analysis, uncover a margin of safety, and then you blow up your season because you bet too much on one game and lost (we've all been there). Remember, “the closing lines are usually right or close to right,” so you have to have a strategy that lowers the chances that you’ll go bust if you go on a losing streak, because there will be losing streaks. How do we do that?
    1. First, I establish a bankroll for the season. Decide on a total amount upfront, and then stick to that no matter what.
    2. Second, I decide how much I'm going to bet each game. I start with a base bet of 5 units or 5% of my bankroll - i.e. if my bankroll is $1000, each bet should is $50. Why? Two reasons:
      1. First, it helps remove the emotion from betting - e.g. prevents me from doubling down after a loss to make my money back (we've all been there as well) :/
      2. Second, it helps me to survive the inevitable swings (i.e. losing streaks) and still turn it around later to come out on top 
    3. Personally, I only start increasing the bet size after I have doubled my initial bankroll with profits - 1) minimizes the chances I’ll go bust; and 2) maximizes my chances of ending the season a winner; 3) press my bets from a position of strength, not desperation.
  4. [Bonus pillar] Process over outcome. Always remember that a good bet can lose, and a bad bet can win. So measure success by the process you’re taking and the decision, not by the outcome. If you have a good process, the results will follow (over time).

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