Free pick

Week 3 TNF: ATL @ GB

The verdict
With so many key injuries to both teams and Michael Penix playing in his first game back from ACL surgery, we think this will be an ugly, low-scoring game. GB’s D will likely stack the box and force Penix to make plays, while ATL’s pass rush will test the Packers’ weakened O-line.
Samuel Lee
· 5 min read

Desperate Falcons Visit Struggling, Injured Packers

GAME LINES

  • Spread: GB -6.5 / ATL +6.5
  • Total: 44.5
  • Moneyline: GB −290 / ATL +234

THE VERDICT

  • PICK: Under 44.5 – Bet: 5 units
  • PASS: Spread
  • PASS: Moneyline

Watch the full breakdown video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmITdh3zqJc

CONTEXT/STORY

Despite finishing 8-9 in 2025 on a four-game winning streak, Atlanta Falcons' ownership overhauled the franchise—firing the GM, head coach Raheem Morris, and releasing QB Kirk Cousins just two years into his four-year, $180 million contract. That decision has immediately backfired; both Morris and Cousins have guided their new teams to 2-0 starts, while the Falcons have sputtered to an 0-2 opening.

Statistically, Atlanta is currently the worst team in the NFL, having scored only 13 total points through two games. The offensive paralysis has been the result of career backup Cooper Rush being forced into action due to injuries to both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. However, the offense gets a critical boost for Thursday Night Football, as Penix returns to the starting lineup to make his highly anticipated season debut.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers enter Week 3 looking to correct a clear downward trajectory that dates back to late last season. Green Bay finished 9-7-1 in 2025, culminating in a 31-27 Wild Card exit against Chicago. However, their true baseline was established prior to Week 15, when the team sat at 9-3-1 before losing defensive anchor Micah Parsons to a season-ending ACL tear. Without their premier pass rusher, the Packers collapsed, failing to win another game for the remainder of the year.

That defensive vulnerability has carried over into 2026. With Parsons starting the season on the PUP list—sidelining him until Week 5 at the earliest—Green Bay has sputtered to a 1-1 start. Their tape through two weeks reveals a team struggling for identity: they were thoroughly dominated by Minnesota in the opener and required a desperate, overtime comeback to narrowly defeat the Jets in Week 2.

KEY MATCHUPS

KM #1 - ATL pass rush vs. GB protection

  • ATL’s defense registered the 2nd most sacks in 2025 (57), but only has four sacks through the first two games, as their #1 and #3 sack leaders from last year have been unavailable due to suspension and injury. 
  • GB’s O-line tied for the 7th fewest sacks allowed last season (29), but has given up 7 through the first two games this year. To make matters worse, the starting Right Tackle is now out for the season, and the backup RT, the starting Left Guard, and the backup LG are all questionable. 
  • Insight: Atlanta should test the right side of GB’s line with Za’Darius Smith, but its depleted edge depth makes its ability to sustain a strong pass rush for 4 qtrs less certain. 
  • Slight advantage: ATL (assuming both GB Left Guards are out)

KM #2 - ATL run game vs. GB run defense

  • Atlanta ranked 8th in rushing yards in 2025, and has averaged 139 yards per game this season, or 4.4 yds per carry. Bijan Robinson is of course leading the way with 254 total yds from scrimmage and a receiving TD, although he has been slowed somewhat by the struggles in the passing game.
  • GB’s run D was very average last year, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed, but has performed much better so far in 2026, allowing only 87 yards per game or 2.8 yds per carry. 
  • Insight: ATL could find success by using zone runs and misdirection to make GB’s linebackers and safeties commit early, then get Bijan Robinson the ball in the space those defenders vacate.
  • Slight advantage: ATL

KM #3 - GB receivers vs. ATL secondary

  • Green Bay’s passing attack was only about average last year, ranking 18th in passing yards, but has been more active so far this year, likely due to the fact that they’ve been playing catch up in both games.
  • Atlanta was 15th in passing yards allowed last season, but has looked vulnerable this season, allowing 508 net passing yards and four passing TDs with no INTs through the first two games. 
  • Insight: Watson's vertical speed and Golden's intermediate work will force Atlanta's safeties to balance depth, allowing Kraft to attack the space that opens inside. 
  • Advantage: GB

KM #4 - GB pass rush vs. ATL protection

  • GB had a below-average pass rush last year, with only 36 sacks total as a team, but has been much improved this year, with 7 sacks led by linebackers Lukas Van Ness at 2.5 and Edgerrin Cooper with two. 
  • ATL’s O-line allowed the 4th-fewest sacks in the league in 2025 (26), but has allowed 7 sacks in the first two games. The availability of Pro Bowl G Chris Lindstrom and RT Jawaan Taylor add to the concerns.
  • Insight: GB’s new Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon can stress the protection with simulated or second-level pressure even without Parsons.
  • Slight advantage: GB

KM #5 - ATL receivers vs. GB secondary

  • Despite their offensive weapons, Atlanta tied for 20th in passing yards in 2025, and has declined further this season, generating only 288 net passing yards and 1 pass TD, with 5 INTs through the first two games. 
  • Green Bay allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards last year, and has continued to be solid this year, allowing 398 net passing yards and 3 pass TDs, along with one INT.
  • Insight: The Falcons need formation and motion to isolate WR Drake London away from All-Pro Safety Xavier McKinney's help and to rebuild TE Kyle Pitts into the middle-of-field progression.
  • Advantage: GB

INJURIES/ABSENCE

Atlanta Falcons

  • Doubtful/Out: 
    • CB AJ Terrell - placed on IR this week - major blow to the secondary, especially given GB’s recent explosiveness
    • EDGE Samson Ebukam - starting edge rusher - his absence would significantly impact Falcons ability to capitalize on GB’s O-line injuries
  • Questionable: no significant players

Green Bay Packers

  • Doubtful/Out: 
    • RT Zach Bako-Bewele - out for the season - major loss for O-line
    • DT Javon Hargrave - key piece of D-line
  • Questionable: 
    • LG Aaron Banks - starting LG - his unavailability means the line will be really stretched thin
    • OL Donovan Jennings - Banks’ primary backup
    • RT Anthony Belton - Bako-Bewele’s primary backup

Weather

  • As of today, September 22nd, the forecast in Green Bay for Thursday at kickoff is around 59 degrees and partly cloudy, with no precipitation expected 

PROJECTIONS

With so many key injuries to both teams and Michael Penix playing in his first game back from ACL surgery, we think this will be an ugly, low-scoring game. GB’s D will likely stack the box and force Penix to make plays, while ATL’s pass rush will test the Packers’ weakened O-line. 

  • ATL projection: 0-1 TDs and 2-3 FGs = 6-16 pts. Midpoint 11
  • GB projection: 1-2 TDs and 2-3 FGs = 13-23 pts. Midpoint 18
  • Score differential: GB should win by ~7 points, with a total of around 29

THE VERDICT

  • Spread: GB -6.5 / ATL +6.5 → PASS
    • Our projections suggest GB should win by about 7, so no margin here. 
  • Total 44.5 → PICK - Under. Bet: 5 units
    • We project a total under 30, so see plenty of margin here. 
  • Moneyline: GB -290 / ATL +234 → PASS
    • Even though our projections suggest GB should win by about a TD, we don’t like the price here. There’s too much uncertainty in this game with key injuries and the return of Michael Penix, so we estimate GB should win this game 2 out of 3 times (67%), but the implied win probability is 74%.