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Week 2: NO @ BAL

Can the Saints D Slow Down the Henry/Jackson Rushing Attack?

Game Lines
SpreadBAL −8.5 / NO +8.5
Total45.5
MoneylineBAL −420 / NO +330

The Verdict
PickBAL to win -42021 units
PickDerrick Henry anytime TD1 unit
PassSpread
PassTotal

CONTEXT/STORY

Despite a 6-11 finish under HC Kellen Moore last season, New Orleans enters Week 2 carrying momentum from a 4-1 late-season surge and an explosive Week 1 performance from QB Tyler Shough (410 yards, 3 TDs). However, overcoming a 21-0 deficit to nearly upset Detroit exposes critical early-game vulnerabilities that a physical Baltimore team can exploit. While the Ravens will miss WR Zay Flowers' perimeter threat, the fundamental metric for a Saints upset rests entirely on their defensive front's ability to contain the elite Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry rushing tandem.

Following an 8-9 campaign and their first postseason absence since 2021, Baltimore overhauled its identity by parting with HC John Harbaugh and hiring former Chargers DC Jesse Minter to implement a defensive-minded scheme. While the high-profile acquisition of star EDGE Trey Hendrickson solidifies the pass rush, the roster faces a net negative on offense after losing Pro Bowl Center Tyler Linderbaum, veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins, and dynamic TE Isaiah Likely. Despite these personnel deficits, a dominant Week 1 road victory over Indianapolis proves Minter's system is highly efficient, making the Ravens a formidable favorite for their home opener.

KEY MATCHUPS

Key Matchup #1: BAL run game vs. NO run defense

  • BAL ranked 2nd in rushing yards and 1st in yards per carry in 2025
  • In week 1, BAL picked up right where they left off, rushing for 202 yds (5.5 YPC) and 4 TDs vs. IND, who was 7th in rush yds allowed last season
  • NO ranked 19th in rushing yards allowed, but 6th in YPC allowed, suggesting their defense was competent last year, but had to absorb substantial volume
  • The Saints allowed 165 yards (5.0 per carry) and 2 rushing TDs in week 1 vs. Jahmyr Gibbs and DET
  • Insight: In order to have a chance in this game, NO must force Henry to stop his feet before the second level and make the Flowers-less passing game carry longer possessions
  • Strong advantage: BAL

Key Matchup #2: BAL pass rush vs. NO protection

  • The Ravens’ pass rush was tied for 28th last year with 30 sacks, but the unit has changed materially with the addition of 2024 All-Pro EDGE Trey Hendrickson and Jesse Minter’s package schemes
  • However, the unit only recorded 2 sacks in week 1, and with DT Madubuike out and Hendrickson questionable for week 2, the threat is somewhat reduced
  • The Saints’ O-line allowed the 8th-most sacks last season (49), but allowed 5 in week 1
  • However, the Saints LT only allowed a 3.0% pressure rate, so the greater concern is protecting elsewhere along the line
  • Insight: Shough can blunt the four man rush with Kellen Moore's quick game and protection movement; the danger is when the Ravens manufacture an unblocked rusher rather than simply winning one-on-one
  • Advantage: BAL (if Hendrickson plays effectively)

Key Matchup #3: NO pass rush vs. BAL protection

  • The Saints tied for 10th in sacks generated last season (45), but was only able to generate one sack in an overtime game vs. the Lions in week 1
  • EDGE Cameron Jordan returns, but Chase Young is questionable
  • BAL tied for 12th in sacks allowed (45) in 2025, but slightly outperformed in week 1, only allowing two
  • However, T Ronnie Stanley and G John Simpson are both questionable, and BAL’s tackle elevation signals genuine contingency planning
  • Insight: The Saints need controlled pressure, not merely penetration, because Jackson's second-reaction plays can erase a good initial rush.
  • Slight advantage: NO (if either Stanley or Simpson sit)

Key Matchup #4: NO receivers vs. BAL secondary

  • New Orleans ranked 10th in passing yards last year, and showed why in week 1 with Shough passing for 410 yds and 3 TDs, and Chris Olave catching 10 passes for 182 yds
  • BAL ranked 29th in passing yards allowed in 2025, but underperformed its talent and looks to be significantly improved under Jesse Minter
  • The Ravens allowed only 166 pass yds with 1 TD and 1 INT in week 1
  • Insight: The Saints' best strategy is to make BAL defend the full distribution—Olave outside, Vele on intermediate routes and Johnson/Fant inside—rather than letting the Ravens tilt coverage toward one target
  • Advantage: Even (assuming Olave plays healthy)

Key Matchup #5: BAL receivers vs. NO secondary

  • Baltimore ranked 28th in passing yards last season, but looked good in week 1, with Jackson passing for 324 yds and a TD with no INTs
  • WR1 Zay Flowers, who had 150 yds and a TD in week 1, is listed as Out for week 2
  • New Orleans allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in 2025, but lost 3 of its starting 5 DBs during the offseason
  • The Saints unit held up respectably in week 1, allowing 206 pass yds and 2 TDs
  • Insight: With Flowers out, BAL will likely feature Andrews, create defined throws with run action and let Jackson extend coverage beyond its designed duration.
  • Advantage: Even

Key Matchup #6: NO run game vs. BAL run defense

  • New Orleans ranked 28th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry in 2025
  • Without Kamara in week 1, the Saints only managed 91 rushing yds (3.6 YPC)
  • BAL ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed last year, but allowed 102 yds (5.1 YPC) vs. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts in week 1
  • Insight: Kamara's return expands the Saints' option and screen answers, while Madubuike and Buchanan being out weakens Baltimore's interior and second-level depth
  • Slight advantage: BAL

INJURIES/ABSENCE

New Orleans Saints

  • Doubtful/Out: no significant players
  • Questionable: 
    • WR Chris Olave - would be huge loss for Saints if he is not able to play
    • Chase Young - materially downgrades pass rush if he is not available

Baltimore Ravens

  • Doubtful/Out: 
    • WR Zay Flowers - loss of explosive WR1 makes passing game more pedestrian
    • DT Nnamdi Madubuike - impacts interior pass rush
    • LB Teddye Buchanan - impacts second-level run defense
  • Questionable: 
    • EDGE Trey Hendrickson - Saints LT is a force, so may not materially impact game if he is unable to play
    • T Ronnie Stanley and G John Simpson - limited in practice on Friday - absence of either impacts pass protection for BAL

Weather

  • Cloudy, with a high near 84 and a 50% chance of showers (minimal impact)

PROJECTIONS

The Saints’ competitiveness in this game will depend on maintaining gap discipline and second-level execution to neutralize Henry. A healthy Olave would provide Shough with the necessary leverage to sustain drives through the air, but we expect BAL to win this one comfortably at home.

  • NO projection: 1-2 TDs, ~3 FGs = 16-23 pts. MIDPOINT 19.5 
  • BAL projection: 3-4 TDs, 1-2 FGs = 24-34 pts. MIDPOINT 29.0
  • Score differential: BAL by 9.5, Total ~48.5

THE VERDICT

  • Spread: BAL -8.5 / NO +8.5 → PASS 
    • Too close to call. Our projection suggests a 9.5 differential, so not enough margin here
  • Total: 45.5 → PASS
    • Our projections suggest a total of 48.5, but with Flowers out and Olave questionable, that’s not enough margin
  • Moneyline: BAL -420 / NO +330 → PICK - BAL to win. Bet: 21 units
    • We think BAL wins this game nearly 100% of the time, so see margin here
  • Player props: Derrick Henry anytime TD -244 (Underdog). Bet: 1 unit