NE @ SEA: Under 44.5 in the Super Bowl rematch

Game lines

• Spread: SEA −3.5 / NE +3.5
• Total: 44.5
• Moneyline: SEA −190 / NE +180

The verdict

PICK: Under 44.5 — Bet size: 5 units
PASS: Spread (SEA −3.5)
PASS: Moneyline

The 2026 NFL season opens with a grudge match: seven months ago Seattle embarrassed New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, and now the champs host the rematch. Two passes and one play — the play is the total.

We pass the side. SEA −3.5 is too close to call in a Week 1 opener with no clean tape yet, and the moneyline's the same pass — −190 is a steep price on a coin-flip game. When the side is this murky, we sit.

The total is the edge. In February, Seattle's defense held New England scoreless through three quarters — the first Super Bowl shutout that deep since the 1970s — with six sacks and three turnovers. Same defense, same young offense, both on a Week 1 ramp-up. We project a final in the mid-to-high 30s; at 44.5, that leaves margin for error.

Under 44.5. Five units.